My retargeting was profitable until day 4 — then it burned cash
Retargeting is supposed to be the safe money. Mine turned toxic after a fixed window and I was slow to see it.
— The setup: e-com cart abandoners, 14-day retargeting window, $40/day, no frequency cap.
— The move: I segmented the retargeting performance by days-since-visit instead of looking at the pooled number.
— The numbers: days 0-3 since abandonment: 5.2x ROAS — incredible. Days 4-7: 1.8x. Days 8-14: 0.6x — pure loss, just re-serving ads to people who were never coming back. The pooled ROAS was 2.1x and looked healthy, hiding the dead tail. The 8-14 segment was 28% of spend at a loss.
— The fix: capped retargeting at 5 days and 3 impressions. Before: $40/day, $84 revenue, 2.1x. After: $28/day effective, $94 revenue, 3.4x.
— The lesson: retargeting intent decays on a steep curve. A flat 14-day window pays to chase ghosts for the back half of it.
What I'd do differently: Set the window by where ROAS crosses break-even, not by the platform default. Those days 8-14 cost me ~$330 over the month. Figures illustrative; the intent-decay curve is real on every retargeting pool.
Arb Files
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