Arb Files
Arb Files
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Same offer, Tier-2 GEO, 3x the margin

Same offer, Tier-2 GEO, 3x the margin

Everybody fought over the US. I ran the identical offer in two Tier-2 countries and outearned my Tier-1 self.

— The setup: a dating offer that paid the same CPA flat across GEOs — $4 per lead — running US push at $90/day.
— The move: I cloned the campaign into Mexico and the Philippines, where the offer accepted traffic at the same $4 payout but CPMs were a fraction of US.
— The numbers: US: $2.10 cost per lead, $4 payout, +90% but with brutal competition capping volume. Mexico: $1.30 cost per lead, same $4, +207%. Philippines: $1.10 cost per lead, +263%. Volume was lower per-GEO but I could run three of them. Combined: US-only was $90/day at +90%; the Tier-2 trio ran $210/day at +180% blended.

— The lesson: when an offer pays a flat global CPA, your edge is the cheapest GEO that still converts, not the richest. Everyone crowds Tier-1 and bids the margin away.

What I'd do differently: Lead with the flat-payout GEO arbitrage instead of treating Tier-2 as an afterthought. I spent two months Tier-1-only first. Numbers illustrative; the flat-CPA-in-cheap-GEO play is a real and repeatable structural edge.
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