SOP #53 — Seasonality Normalization

SOP #53 — Seasonality Normalization

A listing posted right after Q4 shows peak numbers that won't hold. Normalize before you multiply.

1. Pull 24+ months so you see two full cycles, not one good run.
2. Plot revenue by month. Identify the seasonal peak and trough.
3. Calculate a trailing-twelve-month average, not the last 3 months. The TTM smooths the spike.
4. Note the listing date. A site sold in January on October-December numbers is timed to deceive.
5. For gift, finance, or weather niches, weight the multiple to the average month, not the best.
6. Build a forward 12-month projection from the seasonal pattern. Price on that, not on momentum.

A peak month is data, not a baseline. Multiply the average.

Save this — run it every deal.