"Buy at a loss, LTV will cover it" — the myth that quietly drains your bank
The smart-money line: pay above your first-sale value because lifetime value bails you out. I believed it until I aged a cohort properly.
The setup
Subscription box offer. CAC $48, first-order value $40. Network said don't worry, LTV is $90.
The move
Instead of trusting the blended LTV number, I tracked one cohort month by month against its own acquisition cost.
The numbers
The $90 LTV was real — eventually. But it took 5 months to materialize, and 40% of subscribers churned by month 2. My actual cash position on that cohort: minus $8/customer for the first 90 days, across 600 customers = $4,800 in the hole before any recovery. I ran out of float before LTV showed up.
The lesson
LTV is a forecast, not a bank balance. You can be profitable on paper and insolvent in practice if payback takes longer than your cash runway.
What I'd do differently
I now buy to a payback-period target, not an LTV target. Cohort must turn cash-positive inside 60 days or I cut CAC. Figures illustrative; the float trap has killed real shops.
Arb Files
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