How to build a churn cohort chart in 5 steps (no BI tool needed)

A churn cohort tells you when players quit, which decides CPA-vs-RevShare and how long to chase RevShare.

▸ Step 1 — Group players by FTD month. Everyone who first deposited in January is one cohort.
— Step 2 — For each later month, count how many of that cohort deposited at least once. That's your survival curve.
— Step 3 — Express as % of original. Jan cohort: 100% → 58% (month 2) → 41% → 33% → 28%. The shape, not month 1, is the signal.
— Step 4 — Find the 'knee' — where the curve flattens. If it flattens at 25% by month 4, those are your loyal core; everything above month 4 is incremental.
— Step 5 — Compare cohorts side by side to catch product or traffic-quality shifts.

A curve that flattens high and early is RevShare gold. One that decays smoothly to near-zero says take the CPA.

Benchmark of the day: across ~12 operator cohorts, the median sports curve flattened near 24-29% by month 4; slots flattened lower (~16-20%) but with fatter LTV tails on survivors.