~30% of churned depositors are recoverable inside a 90-day window

~30% of churned depositors are recoverable inside a 90-day window

The advice: once a player churns, the LTV is booked and gone. Churn is a state, not a death — and the window is measurable.

Win-back curve, ~12 reactivation programs, lapsed = no deposit 60+ days:
— Inside 0-90 days lapsed, a targeted offer reactivated ~25-32% of the cohort at least once.
— Past 180 days, reactivation collapsed to ~6-8%.
— Reactivated players returned at ~70% of their original deposit size on average — degraded, but far from zero.

The correction: "churned" LTV is partly a recoverable asset if you (or the operator) act inside the 90-day decay window. The mistake is treating the churn cohort (the group that lapsed in a given period) as a write-off and pouring 100% of budget into cold acquisition at ~$140/FTD when ~30% of the lapsed list re-deposits at ~$40 effective cost.

▸ The recovery rate is a curve, not a constant — speed of the win-back touch is the dominant variable.

Benchmark of the day: reactivate inside 90 days or lose it — recovery drops from ~30% to ~7% past the 180-day mark.