Wagering requirement predicts conversion better than bonus size
The advice: push the biggest welcome bonus to maximize signups. Above a threshold, bonus size barely moves the needle — the wagering requirement does.
The data, ~14 landing-page tests with matched traffic:
— Bumping a welcome offer from 100% to 200% match lifted click-to-signup by only ~4-6%.
— Cutting the wagering requirement (WR = how many times you must bet the bonus before withdrawal) from 40x to 25x lifted FTD conversion by ~18-22%.
— Savvy players read the WR before the headline number; it's the true cost of the offer to them.
The correction: promote the term, not the size. A "100% up to $200, 25x" beats a "200% up to $500, 50x" on real FTDs almost every time, and the lower WR produces players who actually clear and stay (lower bonus-abuse, better NGR).
If you only control the creative, lead with the WR and max-cashout terms — that's what your converting segment is filtering on.
Benchmark of the day: a 15x cut in wagering requirement beats a 100-point bonus-size bump on FTD conversion by ~3-4x.
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Wagering requirement predicts conversion better than bonus size
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