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Playbook: Decide revshare vs CPA on a forex offer with a numbers checklist

What it is: A structured way to choose the deal type per traffic source instead of defaulting to whichever number looks bigger.

Best for: Affiliates offered both a flat CPA and a revshare/hybrid on the same broker.

The checklist:
— Estimate average player lifetime value from any prior cohort data. No data? Start CPA — revshare on unknown traffic is a bet.
— Compute breakeven: at your CPA, how much revshare-equivalent revenue would a player need to generate to match it? If your traffic clears that bar, revshare wins long-term.
— Weigh traffic stability: revshare rewards consistent, retaining players; bursty incentive traffic suits CPA's upfront pay.
— Factor clawback exposure: CPA clawbacks are blunt; revshare smooths risk across a player's activity.
— Consider cashflow: revshare pays slowly. If you're reinvesting daily, CPA's speed may matter more than its ceiling.

Pros:
— Forces a per-source decision instead of a blanket choice
— Surfaces cashflow and stability factors the headline number hides

Cons:
— Needs LTV data you may not have on a new source
— The 'right' answer shifts as your traffic quality changes

Who should skip this: Affiliates with only one deal type available — there's no choice to make.

Verdict: CPA when blind, revshare when proven.
This post was published in the Telegram channel Spread Bench. Subscribe here: @SpreadBench.
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