Geo Pulse #57 — Modeling a sustainable payout for a Tier-2 GEO

Theme of the week: back into the payout from local economics.

The math, in the order you should run it:

→ Start with local CPM/CPC benchmarks from your traffic source's planner for that exact country.
→ Estimate your funnel conversion rate conservatively from a comparable GEO you already run.
→ Compute cost-per-acquisition = traffic cost ÷ (CTR × landing CR × action CR).
→ Compare CPA against the advertiser's payout in local-adjusted terms; leave at least a 25–30% margin for variance and FX.
→ Stress-test with a worse-case conversion rate — if it still survives, the GEO is viable.
→ Set a hard daily loss cap before launch and write it into the campaign rules.

Credit: media-cost data from each platform's own ad planner; modeling discipline from STM/AffLift payout-math threads. Margin first, scale second.