Engagement rate explains 11% of conversion variance

Engagement rate explains 11% of conversion variance

ER → conversion correlation
Low ER █████ r≈.34
High ER █████ r≈.33
(ER = likes+comments+saves ÷ followers. n=512 creators matched to attributed sales)

Myth: high engagement rate predicts sales, so you screen on it. Correction: ER tracks content reward, not purchase intent — saves and shares from non-buyers inflate it, and reels juice the number without moving carts.

So what: screen on audience-fit and comment quality, treat raw ER as a vanity filter.

Benchmark: ER above 6% is noise unless paired with on-topic comments.