<b>43% of payment failures occur on the first cycle</b>

<b>43% of payment failures occur on the first cycle</b>

Failure = late, partial, or non-payment. Coded from 61 reported incidents across affiliate forums, 18-month window.

— Cycle 1: 43% ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇
— Cycle 2: 19% ▇▇▇▇
— Cycle 3+: 38% ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇

First-cycle clustering reflects new-account fraud holds and untested terms, not necessarily a bad network. Survivors past cycle 2 had a 91% on-time rate thereafter (n=61 incidents).

Read: cap exposure on cycle 1, then scale on demonstrated payment history.