Running CPA and RevShare side by side on identical traffic: crossover hit at month 4.2

Running CPA and RevShare side by side on identical traffic: crossover hit at month 4.2

Affiliate split 4,000 matched depositors 50/50 across the two models, same brand, tracked 9 months.

The eternal question, finally with one cohort and one offer so the only variable is deal type.

CPA arm: $180/player, paid month 0. 2,000 × $180 = $360k, fixed.
RevShare arm (35%): paid as a function of NGR. Tracked NGR/player ran $61/month decaying ~9%/month as the cohort aged.

Cumulative RevShare crossed the $360k CPA line at month 4.2. By month 9 it had reached $511k — 42% ahead of CPA.

But the decay matters: months 7–9 added only $58k combined as the cohort matured and churned. The curve was flattening hard.

The decision rule this produced: hold RevShare if you can ride 5+ months of cash-flow patience and the brand's retention keeps NGR decay under ~10%/month. Take CPA if cash flow is tight or the brand churns fast.

Benchmark of the day: against a $180 CPA at 35% RevShare, break-even lands near month 4 if month-1 NGR/player clears ~$60 and decays under 10%/month — faster churn pushes you back toward CPA.