<b>"Best time to post" explains under 4% of reach variance</b>

<b>"Best time to post" explains under 4% of reach variance</b>
We regressed reach against publish hour. It is the most overhyped variable in the niche.

— Publish-time band: explains 3.8% of variance
— Hook/first-3-seconds quality: 31%
— Save+share rate: 27%
— Account health (active-follower share): 19%

Timing matters only at the margins — avoid your audience's dead hours and you have captured nearly all the available gain. Optimizing for the "perfect" minute is rearranging 4% while ignoring the 58% that lives in content and signal.

<i>n=1,200 posts, multivariate regression, 60-day window.</i>