Hot reminder: AI SaaS tools have honeymoon churn that wrecks recurring math

Hot reminder: AI SaaS tools have honeymoon churn that wrecks recurring math

Everyone's piling into AI tool affiliate programs for the gold-rush traffic. The retention curves underneath are quietly catastrophic.

Why the recurring pitch falls apart here:

— AI tools attract curiosity buyers who churn after one billing cycle once the novelty fades. First-month-to-second-month drop-offs of 40-60% are common in this category.
— Switching costs are near zero. A cheaper or newer model launches monthly and your customer migrates, taking your recurring with them.
— Many of these tools are reselling the same underlying model, so there's no moat to keep anyone paying.

Your commission assumes the customer stays. In AI tooling, "stays" is the exception. A high-churn product turns "recurring" into "one payment with extra steps."

Verdict: the traffic is real; the retention is a mirage.