Median payback on a link investment lands at month 11 — campaigns killed before then look like losses that wer

Median payback on a link investment lands at month 11 — campaigns killed before then look like losses that weren't

Across 64 programs with revenue attribution (n=64, modeled), cumulative ROI on link spend by month:

— Month 3: -78% (all cost, little traffic)
— Month 6: -41%
— Month 9: -12%
— Month 11: breakeven
— Month 18: +160%

The J-curve is brutal early. Programs cut at month 6 because the dashboard is deep red are killing assets weeks before the inflection. The links don't pay back linearly — value accrues as pages climb past page-two thresholds.

Modeled attribution, last-touch — directional.

Commit link budgets in 12-month blocks or don't start — a 6-month link program almost always reads as a failure.