Bonus-hunter cohorts trigger 15-30% commission clawbacks

Bonus-hunter cohorts trigger 15-30% commission clawbacks

Clawback (an operator reversing your commission after the fact for fraudulent or bonus-abuse traffic) is the silent killer of reported profit, and it lands 30-60 days after you've already counted the money.

What drives it, across ~20 deals with visible clawback lines:
— Bonus-only players who never deposit beyond the welcome offer.
— Matched bettors arbitraging the bookmaker's own promo.
— Multi-account / same-device fraud rings.

Observed clawback rates by source:
— Incentivized / coupon traffic: 20-35% of commissions reversed.
— Organic review traffic: 3-8%.
— Paid social to broad audiences: 12-20%.

The accounting trap: you scale on month-1 reported earnings, then month-3 clawbacks turn a 'profitable' campaign negative after you've already spent the budget.

Defenses:
— Hold a 25% reserve on incentivized traffic until clawbacks settle.
— Track net-of-clawback EPC, not gross.
— Cut sources whose 60-day clawback exceeds 15% regardless of headline volume.

Benchmark of the day: any source running above ~15% net clawback at day 60 is structurally unprofitable even if month-1 looked strong.