<b>Reported player LTV is inflated 30-50% by survivorship bias</b>

<b>Reported player LTV is inflated 30-50% by survivorship bias</b>

LTV (lifetime value — total NGR a player generates before they stop depositing) is almost always quoted on the wrong denominator.

The common error: averaging LTV only over players who deposited at least twice. That silently deletes the 40-60% of first-time depositors who never return — the cohort that drags real economics down.

Worked example, ~500 FTDs (first-time depositors) in one cohort:
— Reported LTV (multi-depositors only): $340
— True LTV (all FTDs, including one-and-done): $205

That 40% gap is the difference between a CPA (cost per acquisition) of $180 being profitable and being a slow bleed.

Fix your denominator:
— Compute LTV over every FTD, not every active.
— Segment one-and-done as its own line; it's a quality signal on your traffic source.
— Recompute monthly — early cohorts look worse until tail deposits land around month 3-4.

If a network quotes you LTV without stating the denominator, assume it's the flattering one and discount 35%.

Benchmark of the day: true all-FTD LTV typically runs 60-70% of the multi-depositor number operators love to quote.