<b>The week iOS killed my dashboard, not my campaign</b>
<i>The setup.</i> Push-to-sweepstakes on iOS, US tier-1. Numbers illustrative but the shape is real.
<i>The move.</i> Day 1-3 the tracker showed 0.38 ROI. Every instinct said cut it. I'd killed three campaigns that quarter on exactly this signal.
<i>The numbers.</i> Spend $2,100 across three days. Tracker revenue $800. But the network postback was running 48-72h behind because the advertiser batched conversions. By day 6 the same cohort had paid out $3,150 — 1.5 ROI on cohorts I almost murdered on day 2.
<i>The lesson.</i> Post-iOS, conversion timing got lumpy. If your offer has a delayed payout model — trials, app installs with in-app events, anything with a CRM step — your day-1 ROAS is fiction. You're not reading performance, you're reading reporting latency.
<i>What I'd do differently.</i> Build a cohort curve before scaling, not after. Track what percent of a day's revenue lands by hour 24 vs hour 72. Mine was 41% by 24h. Now I judge new offers against that curve instead of a flat break-even line, and I haven't knee-jerk-killed a winner since.
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