"Subscriptions are stable recurring revenue" — churn says otherwise

"Subscriptions are stable recurring revenue" — churn says otherwise

Membership income is sold as the antidote to volatile ad revenue. Its stability depends on a number creators rarely model: churn.

Context. Monthly recurring revenue is only stable if retention is high. At any churn rate, a subscriber base requires constant new acquisition just to hold flat.

Findings. Reported creator membership churn frequently lands in the 5–10% monthly range — meaning a meaningful share of subscribers leave each year and must be replaced. At 8% monthly churn, roughly two-thirds of a cohort is gone within a year. "Recurring" revenue that requires continuous replacement of most of its base behaves more like repeat sales than an annuity.

Caveats. Churn varies enormously by content type and price point; community-driven and utility memberships retain far better than entertainment ones. Self-reported churn figures are sparse and likely understated by survivorship.

Implication. Subscription revenue is stable only at low churn. Without retention engineering, it is an acquisition treadmill wearing an annuity's label.

What we still don't know: cross-platform creator churn benchmarks are largely unpublished, so most retention modeling is guesswork.