Size your cash buffer from the hold-time tail

Size your cash buffer from the hold-time tail
Under-buffer and a payout delay halts your scaling.

— Use p90 hold time, not the median — tails are what strand you
— Multiply by peak daily spend, not average
— Add one payment cycle of lag (the frequency gap)
— Hold a 20% contingency for a single delayed payout
— Recompute the buffer each time spend steps up

Buffer = (p90 hold + cycle lag) × peak spend × 1.2
Worked: (58d+7d) × $2k × 1.2 ▏▏▏▏▏ ≈ $156k

Read: the buffer is set by the worst 10% of holds, never the typical one.