Bonus-hunters cap a cohort's NGR at ~22% below clean traffic
Bonus-abuse (players optimizing welcome offers, then leaving) doesn't just churn — it inverts NGR. Across a flagged ~3,000-player segment:
— Clean-traffic FTD cohort: $41 average month-1 NGR.
— Bonus-hunter cohort: $9 month-1 NGR, and 31% posted negative NGR (operator paid out more than it took).
That negative tail is the killer on RevShare-with-carryover deals: the abusers' losses pool against your positive players, dragging blended cohort NGR ~22% below what clean traffic alone would produce.
The signal to watch: time-to-second-deposit. Clean players re-deposit in a median 6 days; bonus-hunters either never do (single bonus claim) or re-deposit only at the next offer. A cohort where >25% never post a second deposit is bonus-poisoned.
Benchmark of the day: if your second-deposit rate is under ~55%, your effective RevShare is ~22% lower than the rate card implies — clean the source before renegotiating.
Bet Margin Lab
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Bonus-hunters cap a cohort's NGR at ~22% below clean traffic
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