62% of a casino player's lifetime NGR lands in the first 90 days

62% of a casino player's lifetime NGR lands in the first 90 days
The deposit-to-NGR curve front-loads harder than retention dashboards suggest. Across a ~12-month casino cohort:
— Days 0-30: 34% of lifetime NGR.
— Days 31-90: 28%.
— Days 91-180: 21%.
— Days 181-365: 17%.

So 62% of what a player will ever be worth is realized in the first quarter. This reshapes how CPA and RevShare should be valued: a CPA deal effectively monetizes 100% of that front-loaded value immediately, while RevShare leaks the back-half 38% to churn risk and carryover.

The operational read: if your traffic source produces players with a steeper-than-average decay (impulse-driven paid social, say), CPA is almost always correct — you're selling the operator a front-loaded asset and letting them own the thin tail.

Benchmark of the day: if >60% of cohort NGR clears in 90 days, value the deal as ~0.6×CPA-equivalent and don't pay the RevShare-optimism premium.