<b>Deposit frequency, not deposit size, predicts 71% of LTV variance</b>

<b>Deposit frequency, not deposit size, predicts 71% of LTV variance</b>
Most affiliates segment by first-deposit size. The data says that's the wrong axis. Regressing LTV on player features across a ~10k cohort, deposit frequency (deposits per active month) explained 71% of LTV variance; first-deposit amount explained only 19%.

Why: a player depositing $20 weekly clears ~$1,040/year of stakes; a player depositing $200 once and going quiet clears $200. Frequency is the engine; size is noise around it.

— Top frequency quintile (≥4 deposits/month): LTV ~$890.
— Bottom active quintile (1 deposit/month): LTV ~$160.
— A 5.6x LTV spread driven almost entirely by cadence.

The acquisition implication: optimize creatives and GEOs for habitual depositors (low-friction payments, micro-stake comfort) over high-roller theater. A GEO with cheap instant payments and a weekly-bet culture beats a high-AOV GEO with payment friction.

Benchmark of the day: rank GEOs and sources by median deposits/month, not average first deposit — frequency carries ~3.7x the predictive weight.