Tool-recommended times vs your-followers-online: which to trust

Tool-recommended times vs your-followers-online: which to trust
n=95 accounts, A/B over 60-day window.
— Posting at third-party-tool 'best time': median 18% reach
— Posting at native 'most active' window: 20%
— Posting 30-90 min BEFORE peak: 23%
The counterintuitive winner is pre-peak. Posting at the activity peak means competing with everyone else's scheduled content for the same feed slots.
So what: ignore both default recommendations and post into the rising edge of your activity curve, not the crest. The tool tells you when traffic is highest, not when competition for the feed is lowest.