FTD count is the wrong KPI — deposit-to-NGR ratio predicts payout 2-3x better

FTD count is the wrong KPI — deposit-to-NGR ratio predicts payout 2-3x better

FTD (first time depositor) volume is the metric every affiliate reports and the one that misleads most. Two campaigns can post identical FTD counts and pay out 3x apart.

Why: a $20 FTD from a bonus-hunter GEO and a $20 FTD from a sticky GEO look identical at signup. The divergence shows up in deposit-to-NGR — how much net gaming revenue each deposited dollar eventually produces.

Across tracked cohorts:
— Bonus-abuse traffic: FTD-to-NGR can run negative for 2-3 months (bonus cost exceeds revenue) before flattening near zero.
— Organic/content traffic: FTD-to-NGR turns positive by week 2-3 and compounds.

So FTD count tells you volume, not value. The comparison that matters: track FTD-to-NGR by source for the first 60 days. A source delivering half the FTDs at double the deposit-to-NGR ratio is the one to scale.

The tactical swap: stop optimizing creatives toward FTD count. Optimize toward FTD-to-NGR-positive-by-day-30. It kills your headline volume number and roughly doubles your actual payout per dollar of spend.

Benchmark of the day: a source with half the FTDs but 2x deposit-to-NGR outpays the high-FTD source — count predicts volume, ratio predicts revenue.