The break-even crossover sits at month 4.2 — that's your CPA-vs-RevShare rule

The break-even crossover sits at month 4.2 — that's your CPA-vs-RevShare rule

Across ~40 tracked Tier-1 deals, the decision isn't ideology, it's a single intersection point. A $180 CPA pays out once. A 35% RevShare on an account generating $40 NGR (net gaming revenue — gross bets minus payouts minus bonuses) per month returns $14/month.

The math:
— CPA gives you $180 today.
— RevShare needs 180 ÷ 14 = 12.8 months to match it.
— But RevShare keeps paying after that, and CPA stops.

So the real variable is retention. If your average player churns before month 13, take CPA. If your churn cohort (the share of a signup batch still depositing N months later) holds past month 13, RevShare wins on lifetime value.

The trap: most affiliates compare CPA to month-1 RevShare and conclude CPA always wins. It does — for one month. Pull the comparison out to your actual median player lifespan and the curve flips for any cohort surviving past ~13 months at these economics.

Use CPA when your traffic is broad and shallow (PPC, pop). Use RevShare when it's narrow and loyal (content, email, communities).

Benchmark of the day: at 35% RevShare and $40 monthly NGR, CPA above $180 only wins if your median player churns before month 13.