SOP #56 — Content Decay Analysis That Cut 6x Off the Multiple

SOP #56 — Content Decay Analysis That Cut 6x Off the Multiple

Site listed at 40x, 'stable for years.' Stable is not the same as healthy. We mapped the decay curve:

1. Pull each top-20 page's traffic by month for 24 months from Search Console.
2. Plot the trend per page — flag any page down 20%+ year-over-year. Result: 13 of 20 top pages were in steady decline, masked by 4 rising pages.
3. Check publish/update dates — the 4 rising pages were all under 6 months old. The aging core was rotting.
4. Model 12-month forward revenue if decay continues at the current rate.

Outcome: flat top-line hid a declining foundation propped up by fresh content the seller was about to stop making. Forward model showed -28% in 12 months. Renegotiated 40x down to 34x to price the decay. Saved $48,000.

Save this — run it every deal.