Caps fill non-linearly; the last 20% is where shave hides

Caps fill non-linearly; the last 20% is where shave hides
Daily cap = the max conversions an advertiser will pay for per day.
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Approval rate at 0–50% of cap: ~95% ▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏
50–80% of cap: ~92% ▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏
80–100% of cap: ~81% ▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏
Over cap (overflow): ~44% ▏▏▏▏
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Sample: 27 capped offers, conversion-level timestamps.
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As offers approach cap, advertisers tighten validation; conversions sent over cap are mostly burned.
Read: pace traffic to land inside 80% of cap, and stop sending the moment overflow begins.