You need ~370 conversions before an EPC estimate stops lying to you
Confidence interval = the range your true EPC likely sits in, given the sample.
— At 30 conversions: +/-41% margin ▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏▏
— At 100: +/-22% ▏▏▏▏▏▏
— At 370: +/-10% ▏▏▏
— At 1,000: +/-6% ▏▏
Margin shrinks with the square root of sample size, so the first conversions buy the most certainty and later ones buy little. Killing an offer at 30 conversions is mostly reading noise. n=Monte Carlo on observed EPC distributions.
Read: set kill decisions at a conversion count, not a spend amount; ~100 is the practical floor, 370 is solid.
Network Vitals
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You need ~370 conversions before an EPC estimate stops lying to you
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