Myth: a recent traffic uptrend means buy now. Correction: a fresh spike often inflates the asking multiple right before it reverts. Test whether the trend is durable or a pump:
1. Identify the cause of the rise — a single viral page or news event reverts; broad gains across pages persist.
2. Check if the spike aligns with a Google update the seller is selling into before a likely correction.
3. Look for one-time link injections or a paid traffic burst timed to the sale window.
4. Compare the rising metric's intent — informational spike traffic rarely sustains revenue.
5. Demand the trailing-12-month average as the valuation base, not the hot last 60 days.
Sellers list when the chart looks best. Price on the durable baseline, not the convenient peak.
Save this — run it every deal.
The Deal Desk
@TheDealDesk
SOP #56 — "Trending-up traffic is the best signal" is wrong
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