Forecast a seasonal keyword before you commit content

Forecast a seasonal keyword before you commit content
Monthly average hides the spike. Across 400 seasonal terms the peak month ran 4.1x the annual mean. Map the curve first.

— Step 1: pull 24 months of trend data, not 12
— Step 2: find the peak month and the ramp-up start
— Step 3: measure lead time ▇▇▇ rank takes 8-12 weeks to mature
— Step 4: publish 90 days before peak, not at peak
— Step 5: confirm the spike repeats across both years (not a one-off event)

We found 22% of "seasonal" terms had only one spike in two years (an event, not a season). The so what: publishing at peak means ranking after it ends.

Benchmark of the week: seasonal peaks run 3 to 5x the annual monthly average.