<b>The top 3% of players generate ~55% of cohort NGR — and all your variance</b>

<b>The top 3% of players generate ~55% of cohort NGR — and all your variance</b>
NGR concentration in iGaming is extreme. Across ~9 cohorts, the top 3% of depositors produced a median 55% of total NGR. On RevShare, that concentration is both your upside and your existential risk.

The asymmetry: those same whales drive the negative-carryover events. A single whale's winning month can swing a cohort from +$8,000 NGR to +$2,000, cutting your RevShare 75% for that month on a cohort that hasn't actually changed in size.

Two defensive structures:
— No negative carryover (covered earlier) caps the downside.
— A cap-and-floor deal: operator floors your monthly share but caps the whale upside. Trades expected value for variance reduction — correct if cash flow matters more than ceiling.

The portfolio read: a single-operator affiliate with whale-heavy traffic is running an undiversified bet on dice variance. Spreading across 3+ operators smooths the whale variance roughly with the square root of operator count.

Benchmark of the day: if your top 3% exceeds ~50% of NGR, treat monthly RevShare as a variance series, not income — diversify operators or buy the floor.