We charted link arrival for 50 campaigns of each type (n=100).
— Digital PR: 0 links for 3 weeks, then 40-120 in a 5-day spike (pickup wave)
— Bought links: steady 8-12/month, low variance
The PR spike looks unnatural in isolation but is defensible — a real story spreads fast, and the donors are genuine news domains. Bought links arrive smooth but from a thinner, more repeatable footprint.
What it means: velocity alone isn't the risk signal — source quality is. A sudden spike from newsrooms is safe; a slow drip from link farms is not.
Don't smooth a PR spike artificially — the burst from real media is the signal, not the problem.
Link Velocity Index
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Digital PR delivers links in bursts; bought links arrive linear — velocity shapes risk
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