How to read the break-even window before you trust ROI
Day-1 ROI lies. Here's the playbook I use to know when a number is real.
The setup
Lead-gen offer, payout confirmed on a 7-day hold. My tracker shows ROI instantly, but money lands later.
The move
— Step 1: find the offer's actual payment terms. Confirmed vs pending vs scrubbed. Ask, don't assume.
— Step 2: build two ROI lines. "Reported ROI" (what the tracker says now) and "Confirmed ROI" (after expected scrub %).
— Step 3: apply a scrub haircut. New offer with no history? Assume 15-20% of leads reject until you have data.
— Step 4: only scale on Confirmed ROI, never Reported.
The numbers
Reported ROI showed +34%. Manager's scrub came in at 22%. Confirmed ROI: +5%. I almost scaled hard on a campaign that was barely green.
The lesson
Reported ROI is a hypothesis. Confirmed ROI is the business. The gap between them is where over-scaling kills accounts.
What I'd do differently
Log the scrub rate per offer in a sheet so the haircut gets accurate over time instead of a guess. Figures illustrative.
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