The 4-step model that picks CPA vs RevShare per offer

The 4-step model that picks CPA vs RevShare per offer

Most affiliates pick a deal by gut. Run this instead, per offer, before you sign.

▸ Step 1 — Pull the player LTV (lifetime value: total NGR a player generates before churn) for that GEO/vertical from your last ~50 FTDs. No history? Use the operator's cohort if they'll share it.
— Step 2 — Compute breakeven month: CPA / (monthly NGR x RevShare %). At CPA $200, NGR $90/mo, 35% RevShare → $200 / $31.5 = 6.3 months to match.
— Step 3 — Overlay your churn cohort. If median player lifetime is under 6.3 months, CPA wins outright. If above, RevShare compounds past it.
— Step 4 — Stress it: cut LTV 25% for a bad-traffic month. If CPA still loses, you're over-indexed on best-case.

The trap is signing RevShare on traffic that churns in month 3 — you collect three small checks then nothing, while CPA would've banked the full $200 day one.

Benchmark of the day: across ~40 tracked Tier-1 deals, RevShare overtakes CPA between month 5 and 8 when LTV holds ~$510.