Playbook: establish a follower-velocity baseline

Playbook: establish a follower-velocity baseline
Median net growth for 10k-50k accounts: +1.9%/month (n=310, 90-day window). Without a baseline, you can't tell signal from noise.
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Week 1-2: log daily net follows. Variance is normal: ±0.4% day-to-day.
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Compute a 7-day rolling average — that's your true velocity, not any single day.
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Mark every spike against its post. No matching post = bot wave, discount it.
Velocity by cohort:
1k-10k: ████ +3.2% | 10k-50k: ██ +1.9% | 50k+: █ +0.8%
So what: under +0.8%/month at 50k is below median decay — you're shrinking in real terms once churn is netted.