Bet Margin Lab
Bet Margin Lab
@BetMarginLab

Negative carryover can erase 2.3 months of earnings per big-win event

Negative carryover can erase 2.3 months of earnings per big-win event
Negative carryover means a losing month for the operator (player wins big) rolls a negative NGR balance into your next month, suppressing your RevShare until it's cleared.

Modeled across a 12-month cohort with sportsbook variance: a single sharp player hitting a +$4,000 NGR swing against the book, on a 35% deal, can park a roughly -$1,400 share liability — wiping out ~2.3 months of average earnings from that player group before you're paid again.

— With carryover: your annual yield on a variance-heavy cohort drops 14-19%.
— Without it (reset to zero monthly): variance is the operator's problem, not yours.

The ask: "no negative carryover" is the single highest-value non-rate clause in a sportsbook contract. It's worth more than 3-4 points of headline RevShare on any cohort with whales.

Benchmark of the day: on books where one player can be >5% of your monthly NGR, refuse carryover or price it as a ~15% rate discount.
Этот пост опубликован в Telegram-канале Bet Margin Lab. Подписаться можно по ссылке: @BetMarginLab.
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