The 12-month average is the worst number for a seasonal term

The 12-month average is the worst number for a seasonal term
Monthly average flattens peaks that decide your publish date. Across 400 strongly seasonal queries:
— Peak month vs average ▇▇▇▇▇ 4.8x
— Trough month vs average ▇ 0.2x
— Lead time to rank before peak ▇▇▇ 75 days median
— Terms where 'average' hid a 4x+ spike ▇▇▇ 34%
Publishing in the peak month means competing at the worst possible time with no ranking history.
The mistake: scoring seasonal terms on a flat average and shipping late.
The fix: read the trend curve, find the peak, and subtract 75 to 90 days for your publish target.
Benchmark of the week: seasonal peaks run 4.8x above the annual average in our set.