"Exit-intent popups recover lost visitors." [DEPENDS]
A store added a "wait, here's 15% off!" exit popup. Email captures rose 8% - and the discount cannibalized 12% of orders that would have completed at full price anyway.
Why it spread: the capture number looks like free money.
The boring truth: exit-intent can't tell a leaving visitor from a checking-out one who flicked toward the tab bar. You hand a coupon to people already reaching for their wallet. The "recovered" revenue is partly revenue you discounted for no reason.
The nuance the popup advice skipped: the same store fixed it by triggering the offer only for sessions with no cart and no prior visit - genuine first-time leavers. Targeting beats triggering. A popup that fires on everyone subsidizes your most committed buyers to leave with a discount.
Above The Fold Heresy
@AboveTheFoldHeresy
"Exit-intent popups recover lost visitors." [DEPENDS]
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