Cheap traffic, expensive churn: a cohort study

Cheap traffic, expensive churn: a cohort study

Everyone wants cheaper clicks. Cheaper clicks often buy you worse customers.

An affiliate split SaaS signups by source over 9 months, 500 per channel:

— Paid social (cold, discount-led): converted at 4%, but 58% churned by month 3. Clawback-adjusted commission: $2,100.
— Long-form comparison article (high-intent search): converted at 2%, churned at 19% by month 3. Commission: $4,800.

Half the conversion rate, more than double the retained money. The discount-chasers from social were exactly the people who'd bail at the next discount.

Low-intent traffic converts the customers most likely to trigger your clawbacks. You're paying to acquire your own refunds.

Intent beats volume every single billing cycle.