'Estimated' fees ran 8-11% above final paid, every month

'Estimated' fees ran 8-11% above final paid, every month

The Associates dashboard 'Estimated Earnings' is a ceiling, not a forecast. The gap comes from returns, cancellations, and disqualified orders trued up later.

— Estimated (month-end): $4,820
— Final (after adjustments, ~60 days): $4,310
— Haircut: 10.6%

(n=12 consecutive months, same account)

The haircut is fairly stable per account and category mix, so it's predictable once you measure yours.

So what: Discount your dashboard number by your historical haircut before making spend decisions. Forecasting off 'estimated' over-projects cash by ~10% and burns people who reinvest against it. Measure your own true-up ratio over 3+ months.