You need ~10 creatives in to find 1 scalable winner — plan the test budget around the strike rate

You need ~10 creatives in to find 1 scalable winner — plan the test budget around the strike rate

Winner = a creative that holds target CPA at 3x its test spend.

Strike-rate study, 500+ tested creatives:
— Scalable-winner rate: ~10% (1 in 10)
— Marginal/usable: ~25%
— Dead on arrival: ~65%
— Min spend to judge a creative: ~3x target CPA in cost before calling it

So two fresh winners ≈ 20 creatives tested ≈ 20 × 3 × CPA in budget. At $30 CPA that's ~$1,800 of planned learning spend.

Read: budget creative testing as a known tax (~strike rate × 3x CPA), not as overhead you resent.