Click and conversion spikes: the alert setup that catches fraud before payout

Click and conversion spikes: the alert setup that catches fraud before payout

A spike is a signal, not proof of fraud. Set alerts against a baseline for each offer, source, placement, device type, and hour. A single global threshold creates noise because normal volume differs widely across segments.

Track at least four triggers:
— Clicks rise while spend and impressions stay flat.
— Conversions jump without a matching increase in qualified clicks.
— Conversion rate changes sharply for one publisher, sub-ID, or creative.
— Several conversions arrive from the same IP range, device pattern, or unusually short click-to-conversion window.

Use two alert levels. A warning should prompt a quick review; a critical alert should pause payouts or traffic only when multiple signals agree. Include the affected segment, comparison window, baseline, and raw counts in every notification. Without context, an alert becomes an argument instead of an investigation.

Before taking action, check tracking changes, delayed reporting, duplicate postbacks, redirects, and legitimate campaign launches. Save the click IDs and conversion IDs, then compare the segment with clean traffic. Document the decision so the same pattern is handled consistently.

Good alerts reduce blind spots without turning every anomaly into a false flag. Start with explainable thresholds, review them after enough clean data accumulates, and require corroborating evidence before labeling a partner fraudulent.