Q: How do I tell if a niche is actually saturated or if I'm just making excuses?

Q: How do I tell if a niche is actually saturated or if I'm just making excuses?

Short answer: saturation is about sameness, not volume.

Longer answer, run this test:
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Search your core topic, open the top 20 posts. If 15+ use the same hook and angle, the FORMAT is saturated — not the niche.
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Check the comments on top posts for unanswered questions. Every repeated question is an open lane.
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Look for the newest small account that broke through. If it exists, entry is still possible.
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If zero new accounts cracked the top in 6 months, it's genuinely locked.

Verdict: 'saturated' almost always means 'I'm copying what's already there.' Pick the unanswered question and you're in a fresh sub-niche, not a dead one.