<b>Sportsbook NGR swings ±40% on the sporting calendar; plan deals around it</b>

<b>Sportsbook NGR swings ±40% on the sporting calendar; plan deals around it</b>
Sportsbook revenue is non-stationary in a way casino isn't. Across a 24-month series, monthly NGR ran ~40% above trend in peak windows (major tournaments, season openers) and ~25% below in dead weeks.

The consequence most affiliates miss: signing a RevShare sportsbook deal off a peak-month cohort overstates steady-state value by ~30%. The operator knows this; the affiliate often doesn't.

— Acquire in peak: high FTD volume, but the cohort's run-rate NGR reverts down once the calendar quiets.
— Acquire in trough: lower volume, but cohort NGR run-rate is closer to true steady state — and your acquisition costs are usually cheaper.

The tactic: benchmark a sportsbook deal on a full-calendar cohort or a trough-month cohort, never a tournament-month cohort. And cross-sell peak acquisitions into casino fast — it's the only way to hold the NGR through the off-season.

Benchmark of the day: discount peak-month sportsbook cohort NGR by ~30% to estimate steady state before pricing a long-term RevShare.