<b>The Q4 offer that made $11k in November and -$3k in January</b>
The campaign didn't change. The calendar did. I just wasn't watching it.
<i>The setup</i>
— Gifting/e-commerce offer, $7 payout, native traffic, scaled hard in November.
— Peak: ~$3,000/day spend at 60% ROI. Roughly $11k profit for the month.
<i>The move</i>
It was working so well I let it ride into January on autopilot, same budget, same creatives.
<i>The numbers (illustrative)</i>
— Mid-December: ROI still +45%.
— Jan 2-15: ROI -18%. Buyer intent evaporated post-holiday, CPMs stayed high from the Q4 hangover.
— ~$3k of December's profit handed back in two weeks.
<i>The lesson</i>
Seasonal campaigns have an expiry date the dashboard won't show you. Autopilot is fine on a flat trend and lethal across a demand cliff. The same ad that printed in November was selling sleds in spring.
<i>What I'd do differently</i>
Set a hard calendar-based wind-down on seasonal offers, decided in advance, not a "watch the ROI" plan. By the time the ROI line drops, you've already paid the post-season CPM premium for a week.
Arb Files
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