<b>SERP stability predicts difficulty better than KD</b>

<b>SERP stability predicts difficulty better than KD</b>
A crowded, unstable top 10 is an opening; a frozen one is a wall. We tracked rank stability for 900 queries over 90 days against newcomer success.
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Stable SERP (same top 5 all quarter), newcomer breaks in ▇ 9%
Moderate churn ▇▇▇ 27%
High churn (top 5 changed monthly) ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 54%
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Google freezes SERPs it's confident about. Persistent churn means it hasn't settled on winners, which is exactly where a strong new page can claim a slot. A high KD with a frozen SERP is far worse odds than a high KD with churn.
<b>So what:</b> log 90 days of top-5 stability per target. Volatility you can exploit beats a difficulty score you can't interpret.
Benchmark of the week: newcomers break into high-churn SERPs 6x more often than frozen ones.