Applying one click-through curve to every query overstates traffic by 40%

Applying one click-through curve to every query overstates traffic by 40%
A single CTR-by-position model (position 1 equals 30%, and so on) ignores that the curve bends with intent. Across 2,000 ranked queries:
— Navigational, position 1 actual ▇▇▇▇▇ 52%
— Informational, position 1 ▇▇▇ 28%
— Long-tail question, position 1 ▇▇▇▇ 41%
— Forecast error from using a flat curve ▇▇▇ 39%
Navigational intent concentrates clicks at the top; broad info spreads them down the page.
The mistake: one traffic model for all keyword types.
The fix: bucket terms by intent first, then apply a separate click-through curve per bucket.
Benchmark of the week: a flat CTR model overstates informational-term traffic by about 39%.