Casino LTV front-loads ~70% in 90 days; sportsbook back-loads — match your traffic model to the curve

Casino LTV front-loads ~70% in 90 days; sportsbook back-loads — match your traffic model to the curve

LTV (lifetime value — total NGR a player produces before churning) doesn't just differ in size between verticals, it differs in shape, and shape dictates which monetization model fits.

Across tracked cohorts:
— Casino: steep early curve. Roughly 65-70% of player LTV realizes inside the first 90 days, then decays fast. High intensity, short lifespan.
— Sportsbook: flatter, longer curve. LTV accrues across seasons; a football bettor's value is spread over 9-month campaigns and reactivates with each season.

The implication for deal choice:
— Casino's front-loaded curve favors CPA or short-window hybrids — you capture value before churn anyway, so locking in upfront cash loses little tail.
— Sportsbook's back-loaded curve favors RevShare — the value you'd give away on a CPA deal is exactly the seasonal reactivation tail that pays out for years.

Mixing them up is the common error: RevShare on fast-churning casino traffic leaves money on the table; CPA on a loyal sportsbook bettor caps you out of the best part of the curve.

Benchmark of the day: casino realizes ~70% of LTV in 90 days (favor CPA), sportsbook spreads LTV across seasons (favor RevShare) — the curve picks the deal.