Mistake: scaling spend before the refund window closes

Mistake: scaling spend before the refund window closes
Hot reminder: a 30-day money-back guarantee means your first 30 days of "profit" are a loan the program can recall.

Where people blow up:
— Day 1-14: conversions roll in, ROAS looks elite, you 3x the budget.
— Day 31-45: refunds and reversals land on the cohort you scaled into. Now you're upside down on the biggest spend week you ever had.

Fix: pace budget increases to lag the longest reversal window the program allows. If they refund up to 30 days and claw back to 60, don't read a cohort as profitable until it's 60+ days old. Use a rolling holdback — treat 30% of fresh commission as unconfirmed cash.

Verdict: early ROAS is a rumor. Aged ROAS is a fact.